Analys: Efter en 70% ökning har Bitcoin kopplats från guld under Q4

Bitcoin har visat tecken på frikoppling från guld. Detta kommer efter att kryptovalutan ökat massivt under hela detta kvartal.

Det sista kvartalet 2020 har varit extremt hausse för Bitcoin med en ökning med 70%. I synnerhet såg november den högsta månadsstängningen efter att BTC bröt rekordhöga tid på flera börser.

Medan den primära kryptovalutan har haft de senaste månaderna har guldprestanda kontrasterats betydligt. Ädelmetallen har tappat över 6% av värdet sedan den 1 oktober.

De två tillgångarna visade en hög korrelation tidigare i år. Den senaste prisutvecklingen har dock brutit mot diskussionen om frikoppling. Kryptoanalysföretaget Skew var det senaste som framhöll kontrasten mellan BTC: s höga pris och bullionens nedgång.

Institutionella investerare ersätter guld med BTC: Ja eller nej?

Gemenskapen har jämfört Bitcoin och guld sedan det tidigare finns. Berättelsen om att BTC kommer att, eller till och med att den redan har börjat, ersätta bullionen, har dock blomstrat i popularitet de senaste månaderna.

JPMorgan Chase & Co publicerade en rapport förra månaden som hävdade att Bitcoin skulle kunna växa ytterligare eftersom det har börjat konkurrera med guld när det gäller institutionella investerares intresse.

Chief Investment Officer för världens största kapitalförvaltare BlackRock delar också denna uppfattning. Han noterade att BTC: s hållbara teknik snart skulle kunna „ta guldets plats i stor utsträckning.“

Den tidigare hedgefondförvaltaren Raoul Pal sa på söndagen att han planerade att sälja de flesta av sina guldpositioner medan han mestadels skalades till bitcoin.

På andra sidan av detta argument sitter Bitcoin bashers som Peter Schiff. VD för Europac och den populära guldbuggen hävdade nyligen att BTC-tjurar pumpar priset konstigt och hoppas att institutionella investerare måste „ha chansen men att köpa av rädsla för att missa.“

Senare kommenterade han att Bitcoin „inte tar någon marknadsandel från guldet“ och bekräftade vidare sin inställning att valar står bakom det senaste rallyet eftersom de vill dumpa kryptovalutan.

Stora BTC-innehavare ökar i november

Bitcoin-adresser som innehåller ett stort antal mynt är vanligtvis en bra indikator på stora BTC-investerares beteende. Enligt uppgifter från Santiment har det skapats 44 nya adresser med 1 000 eller fler mynt och 820 nya adresser med 10 – 1 000 bitcoins skapats bara under de senaste två veckorna.

Intressant är att eftersom stora adresser har ökat under de senaste veckorna har mindre plånböcker, generellt representerande detaljinvesterare, minskat. Santiment angav att antalet adresser med 0,1 – 10 BTC har minskat med 40 000 under samma period.

BTC whales made a profit during the Bitcoin rally

BTC whales made a profit during the Bitcoin rally from August to November: OKEx report

  • OKEx’s research shows that sellers are making larger transactions as the BTC price has risen.
  • Retail customers bought as the price rose.
  • Professionals bought during the American Thanksgiving holiday.

The Trust Project is an international consortium of media organisations based on transparency standards.

Research by OKEx analysed BTC/USD business models from August to November 2020 and revealed that retail traders were losing to whales.

In its research, the OKEx team filtered Bitcoin Code trades by trade size and direction to see how different types of market players acted during the bull run from August to November 2020.

Getting directions

According to the researchers, sorting by store size is simple. However, commercial orientation is difficult and the researchers have carefully explained their methodology.

The authors look at the trades from the perspective of a taker using a Kaiko algorithm. In other words, they examine the type of order placed and whether buy or sell orders were executed for each order size.
Ranking by Bitcoin trader category

Bitcoin traders have been classified into four categories according to the size of the trade:

  • <0.5 BTC
  • 0.5 < 2 BTC
  • 2 < 5 BTC
  • 10+ BTC

The OKEx team explains that these groupings correspond to market personalities and are generally referred to as retail traders, professionals, major traders or whales and institutions. The behaviour of each type of trader falls roughly into these categories and volumes.

So, what happened?

According to OKEx, small retail traders were on a buying spree as BTC continued to grow at around $15,000. Retailers joined the mix after that.

Technical analysis of Cardano: ADA/USD drops below $0.14

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It is likely that the price of cardano will continue its short-term decline if bears can push prices below $0.13

The price of ADA plummeted to less than $0.14 as the wider settlement of the cryptomeda market sees a downward trend in most digital assets. Bitcoin (BTC) fell again below $18,000, while Ethereum (ETH) fell to around $546. Yesterday, the price of Stellar Lumens (XLM) went up over 21%, but is currently below 7% as the altcoins are in red.

The short-term technical framework for the ADA/USD currencies suggests a bearish outlook, which means that the cryptomime may trade as low as $0.10 in the next few sessions. Rejection of the current price will gain momentum following confirmation of a sell signal set on the 4-hour chart.

At the time of writing, the price of Cardano versus the US dollar was around $0.138, down over 5% in the last 24 hours.

ADA/USD could fall to $0.10

4-hour ADA/USD chart. Source: TradingView
The current price for Cardano is below 20-EMA ($0.143) and 50-EMA ($0.148). These price levels previously anchored the ADA, but now offer stubborn resistance levels.

Notably, the price is limited by the upper limit of a downward parallel channel, the scenario of a recent rejection that saw the ADA/USD pair drop from highs of $0.150 to $0.136.

The ADA/USD currency pair is currently attempting to sustain a slight rebound above the midline of the parallel channel. But with the RSI stuck below 50 points and the overall downturn outlook in the cryptomime market, further declines are likely.

If the bulls can’t hold $0.136, the price of Cardano may fall to the lower limit ($0.130).

4 hour ADA/USD chart showing price within downward triangle pattern. Source: TradingView
The downward triangle pattern is another technical indicator that points to the short-term downside perspective for ADA/USD. As this pattern usually suggests a continuation of the bearishness, the 4-hour chart shows that a collapse below the triangle pattern is likely. If further losses occur, the price of Cardano may fall more than 23% to $0.10 before the bulls commit to a recovery.

The 4-hour chart, however, will likely show a buy signal in the next few sessions. If the setting is validated by a red candle nine, a rebound may take the ADA/USD currency pair to highs of $0.18.

US stock markets against crypto El Dorado – S&P Dow Jones Indices gearing up

S&P Profits From Bitcoin Rise – Financial data provider S&P Dow Jones Indices announced this week the launch of a customizable index creation service . The US company’s products will be able to use Lukka’s data on more than 550 digital currencies.

S&P embarks on the crypto adventure

Users of S & P’s services will be able to create their own indices and market analysis tools from Lukka’s data. The growing interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin Supersplit has heightened the need for reliable and standardized data on the price of these assets.

“With digital assets being a booming asset class, now is the time to put in place independent, reliable and accessible benchmarks. “

Peter Roffman, Head of Innovation and Strategy at S&P

In addition, S&P plans to acquire IHS Markit for $ 44 billion . If the deal passes the competition authorities, S&P would become Wall Street’s undisputed provider of financial data.

This is not the first time that an institution has offered a crypto-asset index for Wall Street. Bloomberg has offered the Galaxy Crypto Index since 2018, but this news comes in a particular context.

Traditional financial players rushed into the crypto-asset market in 2020, largely thanks to the rise of Bitcoin. We have seen a cascade of announcements from institutional investors positioning themselves on the king of cryptos. After Grayscale and Fidelity Investments, it is now the turn of S&P Dow Jones to join the game.